Quarterly update (Q2, 2020)

Here we are after a very interesting quarter.

At the end of February, I was chatting with an investor friend and he mentioned the Coronavirus situation in China and how it is already starting to spread in Italy. For all practical purposes, the West was treating the virus as a non threat. “The Chinese are not able to deal with it, but we with our great health care infrastructure will be able to handle it!”. The friend was of the opinion that we should protect our portfolios by buying puts on the market.

“Shouldn’t we spend 5% of our portfolio on protecting our ~30% gains from last year?”

This was a good way to approach the situation. I acted, but unfortunately, in a very half assed way. I only put 0.5% of my portfolio in protecting myself. Even that was really hard for me to do because I have labeled myself as a long term investor and had promised to not get into options. I am happy that I was willing to change my mind. But, I am rubbing my nose in the mistake I made by not putting a more reasonable portion. I think putting 2% would have been a good strategy.

Learning: Do not put labels on yourself. Your goal is to maximize your wealth in the safest way possible. It is not to subscribe to a certain way of thinking.

COVID Strategy

Fortunately, all the stocks I had were Corona proof. My whole portfolio consisted of only 5 companies: GOOG, FB, HIK.L, IBKR & BRK.B. I bought puts on S&P, sold BRK.B and decided to let this blow over. 

The speed of the drop was incredible. The S&P 500 dropped ~ 34% between Feb 20 and March 23. And then did a V-shaped recovery. My portfolio fell 25% — but I handled it quite well. I started a 1% position in MSFT, and added to FB, IBKR & GOOG. I also used the opportunity to lighten Hikma pharma (sold 40% of the position) at 1835 & 2052 Gbp.

Square

During this time, I finally decided to look into Square & Shopify. Square was the one which was punished much more and it made sense to look into it. Square has some really interesting products. Their payroll solution seems to be the second most used in the US, just after Quickbooks. They also went into personal finance via Cash app, which is looking at fantastic growth while their merchant solutions segment is only seeing a GMV growth of ~ 20%.

“US payments volume via cards was $7t in 2018 with a growth rate of ~ 8%. Furthermore, 25% of transactions are still done via cash in the US. Thus, with a current payments size of $10t in the US, Square is currently at 1%.

Square is already making progress internationally. One of the main reasons for Jack Dorsey’s move to Africa was the cash rich economy and the growth in payments.”

Square vs Shopify

Comparing it to Shopify, it seems Square and Shopify are targeting similar merchants. Shopify is transitioning from online -> brick & mortar, while Square is going the other way. Furthermore, Square’s strategy of moving into personal finance via Cash App is not something that fits Shopify’s strategy.

In terms of pricing, there are also differences. Square can be tried for free and add-ons can be added for additional charge. Shopify, on the other hand, seems to have a price tier based on GMV.

“On the other end, Square’s economic moat is challenged by Shopify’s entry into physical retail with it’s retail kit that eerily mimics Square’s aesthetic. Time will tell if Shopify can gain adoption and gain market share away from Square. But one thing is for certain, Shopify will be able to leverage its existing 500K active businesses using its product as a qualified customer list. “

link

Back to Square

Unfortunately, Square has a 10% dilution due to stock based compensation. This was something I was not able to handicap. I am also not sure about the moat of a personal finance app. EU itself has Revolut and Transferwise and I think people generally have both accounts. The Cash App also seems to be targeted at people with low financial education — which is probably quite a large market worldwide. You can buy bitcoins and fractional shares.

All in all, I decided to take a pass. The combination of competition from Shopify/Wix, huge dilution and low moats of personal finance apps leads me to a proposition which is too hard for me to evaluate.

Performance

At the end of June, I am up 3.5% since the beginning of the year, with 24% of my portfolio in cash. The cash is included in the performance number. Meanwhile, S&P500 (without dividend) had lost 4.8%.

Comment on cash

Even at the worst of the crisis, I could not find good ideas where I can go in — except maybe Microsoft. At $137, I found it still too expensive. The cash is, hence, a byproduct of not having ideas. Worse, I thought that COVID would finally lead me to a portfolio without cash but it did not come to pass. I started with ~20% of the portfolio in cash and finished with 24%!

Probably, 24% is too much. I will look into ways of reducing it to 10% of my portfolio.

New rule: Keep your cash position under 10% of your portfolio.

New rule: when you start a new position, the first buy has to be 5% of your portfolio.

On growth

A key lesson that we have learned over the past decade is that future value growth is more important than a single point in time price discount. Our greatest investment successes have come from companies where our appraisal value has steadily grown, and our management teams have taken steps to get that value recognized. Our greatest mistakes have come from focusing too much on the discounted price at the expense of business and people quality and value growth.

Longleaf, 2Q20-Longleaf-Partners-Quarterly-Summary

End of year update

With each passing year I realize that I should concentrate much more on my best ideas, instead of having a few more businesses for the sake of diversification.

The specific examples were Facebook, Apple and Moody’s this year.

With Facebook, I decided to not go over 20% of my IB account. At approximately 130$ a share, Facebook was a no brainer and an incredible opportunity. Looking at FB around those prices, I kept thinking about the salad oil crisis of American Express. If I am not incorrect, Buffett had put 40% of his portfolio in it.

With Apple, I reasoned that I already have positions via Berkshire – 10% of my portfolio. I also was concerned that I am being too aggressive on tech names. With Google, FB, and Apple – I was touching 70% of my IB portfolio! With these reasons in mind, I only put 10% of my portfolio in Apple.

Screenshot_20200102-101948

Moody’s was a mistake of omission. Last year, to teach a value investing course … I needed to come up with an example with a serious moat that has survived several problems and came out stronger. After rejecting Visa/MasterCard, and Google/Facebook, I finally zeroed in on Moody’s.

Moody’s has a phenomenal moat and has survived a direct attack in 2009 (profit was up ~ 20% that year). Arguably, the stupidity of rating agency models were responsible for the pervasiveness of the financial crash of 2008. Still, they were able to argue that ratings qualified as free speech and hence are protected by the Constitution, even if they are way off the mark.

I ran my simple valuation model (earning multiple = growth + dividend) and came up with a price of 135$, while the stock was at $150. I decided to pass and wait for a lower price.

My mistake was not to adjust my simple model for business quality.

Captain Hindsight

I am in two minds about learning from these “mistakes”.

Would I have put my decision making through a reevaluation if my return this year (~ 26%) exceeded that of S&P500 (~ 31%)?
To compare, last year I did ~ 1% while S&P500 did ~ -4%. I was not bothered that much then. My gains came from a near double of (Hikma Pharmaceutical) and I was much more active. I fail to see why I did not put myself through the grinder then even though it was clear that I made many decisions then. In particular, I decided to reduce the number of positions I had from ~ 12 to 5! A more interesting question to ask is if that was a mistake?

Should I have gone over 20% of portfolio for Facebook?
I was extremely sure about the fact that FB will come back. I see the trident of Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp as a set of apps which are almost impossible to kick for a user. But then, I have a rule of 20% to protect myself from my overconfidence. Did the strength of my confidence allow me to break my rule?

Should I have built a larger position in Apple?
This one, at least, is a clear yes. A harder question to ask is: should you worry about sector specific risk in your portfolio? What made me uncomfortable is a > 70% concentration in technology stocks. There are several mental gymnastics to get out of this predicament. One can just say that Apple is not a tech company, albeit a product company. I am going to give this question some thought and see why this makes me uncomfortable.

Lessons

  • Still keeping the rule of 20% for max p

 

 

 

Portfolio changes

After long last, I have some portfolio changes.

One month ago, I reevaluated my Apple position. At $1t market cap, the company becomes too big to offer reasonable return with any margin of safety. I remember in December 2018, the market was overly pessimistic with several articles challenging the shift to service and their problems with China etc. Nothing much has changed. But, the stock has climbed nearly 50% from $150 to $220. All things aside Apple is very cheap at 12x earnings but not cheap at 18xearnings.

I would have likely done nothing if an opportunity had not presented itself.

Interactive Brokers came up with an IB Lite product. This is a great move which brings forth the distinction between IB pro and all other brokers.

* IB does not sell order book to market makers

* IB pays reasonable interest on cash (libor-0.5%)

* IB has the lowest commission.

What does not work in IBs favor is it’s platform which is targeted at traders. There is a learning curve.

IB Lite (no comissions, sells orders for money) with a good app will be a game changer!

Meanwhile, Schwab and Ameritrade announced 0 comissions. They will still continue to sell your orders and pay almost no interest on your cash.

IB has a great product and is playing a game that others can’t! Their smart routing tech saves a lot of money for now IB Pro customers.

I have replaced Apple with IB.

On other front, IB is an owner operator with the founder owning ~ 80%. They have ~ $6b of regulatory capital while they only need $1.5b!

It is a well run and safe broker and is the cheapest around. This is a hard product to compete with.

Quarterly Update (Q1’2019)

No change in the portfolio for this quarter.

chart (3)

I looked at a few things over the last 3 months but none of them excited me. For example: Record Plc, Eurofins Scientific & Be Think Solve Execute. I finally decided not to take any of the positions because I did not feel like I understand them enough.

I continue listening to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder meeting recordings which are now available on Youtube. I started with 1995 and am now listening to 2002. They are 4-5 hours long and I enjoy them immensely.

I feel that the portfolio has a significant runaway still, even after a huge 18% run up year to date. I especially feel that Google, Facebook & Apple are still undervalued.

I do not feel that strongly about Distribution Now. But, I do not have any use for the cash. This will be the first position to go if I find a good new position to add.

Culling my watchlist

School Speciality (SCOO)

Sells furniture, supplies and learning models to schools (link). This idea went on my watchlist on Feb 23, 2018 because Alluvial Capital discussed it in their Q4, 2017 letter (link).

School Specialty is as about close to an ideal Alluvial holding as a stock can be. The company is small, with a market capitalization of just under $120 million. Trading liquidity is minimal, with a handful of funds controlling the large majority of shares outstanding. And the company is boring, operating in the lowgrowth school supply industry. Scissors and glue, dodgeballs and desks. School Specialty went through bankruptcy and emerged in 2013. Since its emergence, the company has focused on maintaining sales, improving efficiency, and controlling costs as school district budgets remain constrained. The company has also focused on improving its working capital management, freeing up millions from inventory and net receivables.

The company has an operating margin of < 3%, long term debt of $128 million, $7.9 million in cash and $105 million in equity. A low margin business with high debt is not something I would like to dig into.

Cimpress N.V. (CMPR)

Cimpress does “mass customized” printing (businesses) i.e., customized printing at mass produced prices. They claim to do this by “sophisticated software and carefully architected configuration options”.

While reading on the business I kept asking myself this one question: will I know if the business became uncompetitive? I don’t think so. Pass.

Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST)

The largest Burger King franchisee in the world. Owns and operates more than 800 locations under the Burger King brand.

The company has paper thin margins. Looking at Q1-3’2018 results (9 months), the company had net income of $8.2 million on sales of $871 million. This is < 1%. The company seems to be taking on debt to acquire more and more Burger king shops. The long term debt went from $160 million in 2013 to $281 million in 2017.

Too much debt, thin margins and a debt fueled expansion is not my idea of a good investment.

Coty Inc (COTY)

Coty has the entire gamut of personal care and beauty brands. It is the third largest beauty brand in the world by sales.

Our three divisions – Luxury, Professional Beauty and Consumer Beauty – are home to iconic global brands and much loved regional brands. Luxury is focused on prestige fragrances and skincare; Professional Beauty is focused on servicing salon owners and professionals in both hair and nail; and Consumer Beauty is focused on mass color cosmetics, mass retail hair coloring and styling products, body care and mass fragrances.

The company has grown revenue at a healthy clip. It went from a revenue of $4b in 2011 to $9.3b in 2018. Long term debt, on the other hand, has also grown from $2.5 billion in 2011 to $7.3 billion in 2018.

We anticipate that we will incur a total of approximately $1.3 billion of operating expenses and capital expenditures of approximately $500 million in connection with the acquisition of the P&G Beauty Business.  — annual report 2018

Coty merged with P&G beauty and in the acquisition press release things were quite a bit rosier.

Coty expects to achieve total cost savings of approximately $750, million or 16% of acquired revenues, through the transaction composed of: initial synergies, reflecting P&G costs that will not transfer, of approximately $350 million; and incremental cost synergies, to be recognized over four years, of approximately $400 million, achieved through a range of efficiency opportunities that the combination of the two businesses create.

It is questionable if being big helps you in selling more products or selling them at higher prices. Maybe there is some cost savings on the manufacturing and the supply side. You may also be able to squeeze some margin out of the outlets that sell your product. But, none of this creates much value in the end. Is it a win-win for customers and the business? Probably not. I don’t think the “synergies” are passed down to the consumers. Actually, cost saving in manufacturing may reduce quality. PASS.

Callaway Golf Company (ELY)

Callaway Golf Company (NYSE: ELY) is a premium golf equipment and active lifestyle company with a portfolio of global brands, including Callaway Golf, Odyssey, OGIO, TravisMathew and Jack Wolfskin. Through an unwavering commitment to innovation, Callaway manufactures and sells premium golf clubs, golf balls, golf and lifestyle bags, golf and lifestyle apparel and other accessories.

In 2019, they took $450m debt and bought Jack Wolfskin. This increased the sales by 37% in 2019. Their net margin is ~ 5%. From my buying experience, although Jack Wolfskin is a great brand … there are far too many competitors and the quality is not that difficult to find. I especially liked Jack Wolfskin’s children offering. My daughter’s jacket have always been from JW and she has worn them quite a lot. Last year, we switched to Reima and we have been positively happy. Reima even has girly jackets and is excellent at building warm layers for active children.

Furthermore, I don’t see why their core segment (Golf & Apparel) should grow in terms of revenue. Probably they think the same and that is why they buy growth via taking on debt.

 

Some thoughts on Apple

Apple released their q1 earnings for 2019 on Jan 29, 2019. Approximately 10% of my portfolio is in Apple. I also have more exposure to Apple through Berkshire, another 10% position for me.

Apple’s Moat

Moat based on privacy

Apple is optically trying to sell itself as a privacy first company. This separates them from companies like Google & Facebook which are ultimately using user data to provide value to the users, as well as advertisers. Apple gets to price their products aggressively and does not need to worry about monetising the  user data.

Because Facebook and Google are ultimately funded through ads, it s difficult for them to compete with Apple on privacy.

And so much of your personal information — information you have a right to keep private — lives on your Apple devices.

Your heart rate after a run. Which news stories you read first. Where you bought your last coffee. What websites you visit. Who you call, email, or message.

— Apple on privacy

This provides Apple a built in moat that none of the existing smartphone makers can compete with. There will always be a market for a privacy sensitive hardware manufacturers. It may grow and shrink depending on the tides of customer sensitivity.

Moat based on a well rounded product that works

Apple devices have a significant resale value, unlike say Samsung. They are built to last a while.

Toni Sacconaghi

Okay. Tim, at your September event Lisa Jackson an Apple VP stated the company needed to quote design products to last as long as possible. And Apple’s clearly doing that by helping with the battery replacement program, iOS working on an older range of products et cetera. But I guess the question is why doesn’t that mean that replacement or upgrade cycles for iPhones should continue to extend going forward in part because that’s almost one of your objectives?

…..

Tim Cook

We do design our products to last as long as possible. Some people hold onto those for the life of the product and some people trade them in. And then that phone is then redistributed to someone else. And so it doesn’t necessarily follow that one leads to the other. The cycles — the average cycle has extended. There’s no doubt about that. We’ve said several times I think on this call and before that the upgrades for the quarter were less than we anticipated due to the — all the reasons that we had mentioned. So, where it goes in the future, I don’t know, but I’m convinced that making a great product that is high quality, that is the best thing for the customer and we work for the user. And so that’s the way that we look at it.

Standing by your product by replacing battery for free is something which only Apple does. I remember having an iPhone 4 whose battery used to run out in 4 hours. I went to the Apple store and even though the product was past warranty (15 months), I walked out with a refurbished iPhone 4s by paying 75 CHF difference!

The latest survey of U.S. consumers from 451 Research indicates customer satisfaction of 99% for iPhone XR, XS and XS Max combined. And among business buyers who plan to purchase smartphones in the March quarter 81% plan to purchase iPhones. Based on the latest information from Kantar, iPhone experienced a 90% customer loyalty rating for iPhone customers in the U.S. 23 points above the next highest brand measured.

— conference call, q1 2019

Apple has a track record of making well rounded, easy to use, well thought out products. They may not have the most cutting edge technology or hardware, but they get there at their own pace and with a great story. For example, Face recognition was a preexisting technology but Apple made it cool.

If you are a customer who does not need to worry about money, which phone do you buy? The answer will probably be Apple.

This gives Apple a disproportionate market share in terms of buying power. Even though Apple has only ~13% of market share in smartphones, Apple owners probably own > 50% of the worlds buying power.

Moat based on wearables

Apple Watch 4 is awesome!

It comes with a great story: FDA cleared heart rate monitor, fall detection for worried adults with old parents and a fast enough processor that is pleasant to use. It is getting rave reviews.

None of the other smartwatches come even close in terms of the eyeballs Watch 4 is getting. Even before Watch 4, Apple was the number 1 watch company in the world by units shipped.

The day is not far when people will consider buying iPhone because they want the watch.

Ideally, I would like to carry my phone in the pocket and do most of the light work on a watch. A watch paired with a bluetooth headset is great for doing quick calls, read notifications, perusing emails/messages etc. I generally run with my android phone for tracking. This is super annoying because it jiggles around in my pockets — if i got one in my running jackets. Most of the time I run with the phone in my hand. A great watch is the only thing I would not be annoyed about taking on a run.

All in all, I am excited about the future of Apple.

Tidbits from the Conference Call

I enjoyed the conference call.

Apple Music

And I’m very proud to say that nearly 16 years after launching the iTunes Store, we generated our highest quarterly music revenue ever thanks to the great popularity of Apple Music now with over 50 million paid subscribers.

Spotify has 87 million paid subscribers (Nov’18). It has a market cap of 24 billion.

Growth in Services

Apple’s service revenue for the year was $41 billion, growing 22% year over year. Apple expects the growth to continue at approximately 20% for the near future (until 2020 at least).

In particular, there is a 20% growth business embedded in Apple with $41 billion revenue and ~ 62% gross margin. Just for fun, we can compare it to AWS — which is a $26b business with 25% gross margin. Obviously, the total addressable market for AWS dwarves that of Apple services. Or maybe Apple pay can become a home run, who knows?

In any case, being conservative with a 40% profit margin for Apple services and paying 20 times earnings, was can easily arrive at a value for Apple services stub i.e., $320b (!) As a reminder, Apple has $130b in net cash and with approximately 4.8 million shares selling at $150 a share, it has an Enterprise Value (EV) of 590 billion. In particular, Apple minus services is selling for only $270 billion (!) This includes the entire hardware segment consisting of iPhones, iPads, Macs, Watches, Beats and so on. Obviously, the success of the hardware and services segment is tied. But, they are both successful businesses in themselves and if conservatively the services stub is worth ~ $320b then the rest of the company is selling very cheaply at $270b.

Buybacks

We repurchased 38 million Apple shares for $8.2 billion through open market transactions …

Apple somehow managed to spend $8.2 billion at the quarterly high of $215 which was the price of Apple shares at the beginning of October. Apple fell precipitously after that got to a low of $146 on Dec 24, 2018. Basically, they went ahead and spent a shit load of money at the beginning of October and then waited out when the stock fell.

it is our plan to reach a net cash neutral position over time.

I hope they are buying their stock hand over fist right now.

As I write this, the Q1 report is out. Happy reading!

Booking.com

Booking Holdings (BKNG) is an interesting business. They own booking.com, OpenTable, Kayak, & Rentalcars.com. They also have significant exposure to Asia via minority investments in Ctrip, DiDi and outright ownership of Agoda. The management has done a great job of building the business for the long term.

Booking currently trades at a forward PE of ~ 17. This valuation hides a couple of things:

  • Booking has approximately $7b in cash, $8.7b in debt but interestingly they have $8.6b in long term investments. The split of the long term investments is as follows:
    Government securities & corp debt: $5.85b
    Ctrip (China):                                   $2b
    Didi (China):                                    $707m
    In particular, we can easily take out $6b from the market cap for computing EV.
  • Booking had offered three tranches of convertible debt of $1b each
    Mar 2012 $1b@$944 due Mar 2018 ($1.4b cash outflow for settling)
    May 2013 $1b@1315 due June 2020
    Aug 2014  $1b@2055 due Sep 2021
    The cash situation for 2018, hence, suffered by nearly $1.5b because of this outflow. Obviously, the outflow will happen in 2020 and 2021 BUT booking has stopped offering convertible debt now. All their nearly $7b long term debt is senior notes.

It looks like booking is actually cheaper than what the superficial analysis tells us.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape where booking.com operates make me very uncomfortable.

Booking’s strategy is to spend on brand advertising. This will result in a user coming to the booking.com portal directly. Right now, a lot of booking.com customers take one of the following routes (1) they are referred via a meta search engine (Trivago/Tripadvisor), or (2) they click on an ad by Google based on the standard keyword based targeting. Given that booking.com has a large enough inventory, a user coming directly to booking will find a fitting accommodation.

On the other hand, Google has been making significant inroads in the travel space. Their flights offering is great! And they are working very aggressively to get the hotel booking experience right. They do not want to do what booking.com is doing i.e., sign up a lot of inventory and act as a middle man between the guests and the hosts. Google is making progress in the meta search space. If you look for “hotels in <city>” they already have a good meta search where you can see which portal offers you the best price. Maybe, even the portal of the hotel sells it cheaper than booking?

Another source of competition is AirBnB. As a business, I like booking much more than AirBnB. AirBnB has two major disadvantages compared to booking.com

  • You do not get an immediate confirmation. You may need to go back and forth over a couple of hours. This kills the experience for me. I already spent a lot of time getting the accommodation right. I don’t want to start the search all over again if the host does not accept me.
  • AirBnB destroys the neighborhoods. It is hard to find places to rent for locals because tourists pay more. I also think that it makes it very difficult for city officials to enforce and maintain the constant influx of tourists if they can live *anywhere*. A lot of places are struggling to cope with over-tourism and we as a society need to come up with ways to handle it. Because this problem will become worse as more and more people move to middle and upper middle class across the developing nations.

Verdict

I think I can’t make a good call here. Even if I did invest in booking because I like the management and the business, I will not be willing to put more than 5% of my portfolio in it. This is because there are too many people out to get you and you are mostly competing on price.

 

Review: 2018

This is what my portfolio looked like at the beginning of 2018.

chart

This is what it looks like at the end of 2018.

chart (1)

A few changes that immediately jump out are:

  • I am completely invested at the end of 2018. Since I started dabbling with investments, I almost always had ~ 25% cash. I liked to keep cash because I thought of using it when the markets crashed. I was completely invested in 2012. And, crash or not, I am completely invested now.
  • I went from holding 14 stocks to only 7. I like to think that this is a by product of discipline and not buying things I do not understand. A lot of companies that I was holding at the beginning of 2018, I will never invest now. For example: Silverchef, LSL Properties, Rolls-Royce etc.

At the end of the year, I am holding the following companies.

  • GOOG: I can’t add to what has already been said many times about the significant moat Google has. In my opinion, YouTube is a significantly undervalued business and cloud/self-driving are some bets which might pay hugely. On top of this, Google sells cheaply for a cash adjusted forward PE multiple of 19 and grows at ~ 20%. If you compare Netflix & YouTube, you can ballpark how much YT is worth. People watch ~ 1b hours of YouTube per day! I estimate the value of YouTube to be at least $200b.
  • Facebook: Lots of bad news this year. The stock got hammered and I was able to correct my mistake of not buying FB at ~ $25. On the plus side, now they have a proven business model, make a lot of money, have $40b in cash and grow at ~ 40% YoY. Currently, FB sells at cash adjusted 18 times forwards PE. This is even cheaper than Google & FB grows more quickly.
  • Hikma Pharmaceuticals: I bought Hikma in March after it got kicked out of FTSE250. This is an owner operator and the family owns ~ 25% of the shares. They have three equal sized businesses: Branded Generics, Generics & Injectables. The bad news coming from the Generic segment drowned out the performance/moat they have in Injectables. The company just became too cheap to pass up. I invested big and luckily the stock appreciated by over 50% in the next few months.
  • Apple: Started buying again when the stock sold off in December. I bought it one day before the China sales warning. The thinking here is simple. They have a great eco-system. Their position wrt privacy is a source of moat which no other Software/Hardware companies offer and the products they design & sell are well thought out and a joy to use. The Watch 4 is getting rave reviews and I am not going to pass off a company like this selling for < 12 times earnings.
  • Booking: Booking has built an OK moat in hotel bookings in Europe. I started with AirBnB but have found myself using Booking more and more. One of the major reasons is that you get an immediate confirmation of your booking. Furthermore, the app/website is quite intuitive and easy to use. Unfortunately, Booking still competes on price and face significant competition from Google/AirBnB and also meta search engines like Trivago. This will never be a > 5% position for me.
  • BRK: Berkshire should be able to return 10% a year. And, I plan to keep this position as a safe holding.
  • DNOW: A well run company selling cheaply. This is the only company in the portfolio that I understand the least. But, I like the management and I like the numbers. It is a marvel to see how they manage working capital during downturns!

In order of things I would sell, if push came to shove, are: BRK, DNOW, BKNG.