Weight Watchers (WTW) is a very promising pick.
There are two things that might go wrong with the company.
One is its huge debt load. The long term debt for the company was $2.4 bn as of Jun 29, 2013. The interest expense for the debt was $50 mn in the last 6 months. The company has very nice cash flows and the interest is well covered. Furthermore, the debt is due a long time in the future. Here is the summary of the long term debt.
The second problem is the challenges the company faces in the market. I am convinced that any weight loss diet should have a social component, otherwise people go back to their old ways. This is probably one of the significant reasons why Weight Watchers has some success in this area. Mobile application will have a difficult time offering the social component and face to face interactions. The problem is that WTW may perform poorly for a few years.
The high debt load complicates the situation in this sense. If the business continues to suffer than WTW might have problems with the lender banks.
Changing my benchmark from SLI (Swiss Leader Index) to S&P500 gives the following results. Compare this chart with the one given in my previous performance analysis [src].
I invested in HP and Best Buy mostly because of quantitative aspects of the business. Their stock seemed very inexpensive compared to their cash flows. Their balance sheet was also not weak and the only reason they were so cheap was because the market had lost trust in their future. In these cases, sometimes the market is wrong. At other times though, the market’s appraisal seems too optimistic. This was the case with HP and in some respects with Best Buy. Both companies were broken in the qualitative sense. They were both facing declining businesses and the management did not seem strong enough to realize the predicament they were in.
Since Southeastern’s inception, we have focused on Ben Graham’s imperative that
every investment should qualify quantitatively and qualitatively. However, any [quantitative] appraisal incorporates critically important qualitative assumptions about a company’s future competitive position and management’s ability to effectively operate and wisely allocate capital for prudent building of intrinsic value per share. When we have assessed these mandatory qualitative factors well, we have had huge investment success as with DIRECTV, Disney, Yum! Brands, Texas Industries, Dillard’s, Philips, and Fairfax. Where we have been wrong on our qualitative inputs, our returns have suffered, as with Dell, Chesapeake, Level 3, and HRT. To further improve our investment execution and results, we will be laser focused on whether a company’s competitive advantages are strengthening; management is operating effectively; and the board and CEO are wisely deploying the business’
financial resources. If an investee falls short on any of these critical necessities, we will move with alacrity to rectify the shortcoming or exit the investment.
As with all of our investments, the companies we highlighted as disappointments initially met our quantitative hurdles, had competitive advantages versus peers, and were led by CE Os with histories of building value for shareholders. What separated the winners from the losers over time was not the quantitative, but rather management’s ability to overcome challenges and generate value growth over time.
They have also found ways to avoid such situations. The following is what they advise.
We have taken an even more
skeptical view of managements without
ownership and/or heavily aligned incentives
(particularly in Japan), companies with
substantial debt/enterprise value (limited
flexibility in adversity even with great assets), and
asset-rich businesses that produce little cash flow
(too reliant on things going right).
We will not add to a position when
value is declining or a case is uncertain, barring
unique circumstances. We will avoid being
seduced by more attractive P/Vs if generated by
lower prices without higher values. As indicated
by our recent actions to improve governance at
Chesapeake, Level 3, and HRT, and to fight the
Dell buyout, we are holding CEOs and boards
more accountable for doing what they promise
and delivering what we expect in a timely
manner. We believe in a long-term time horizon
for stock returns – we are less patient about value
We will exit more quickly – as we did
within a few quarters at Republic Services,
Leucadia, Vivendi, and Anglo American last year –
when competitive advantages or values appear at
risk and we do not believe becoming more active
would yield results.
Apple traded in the $7-$12 range during 2002-2004. The iPod was launched at the end of 2001 and had not caught on yet. People were afraid that the company is on the track to obsoletion. Fast forward to Sep 2012 and the investors were falling over one another to own the company. It seemed that the company could do no wrong. The business was fantastic, the margins were high and the cash flow was copious.
Investors were proved wrong in both cases.
This is not specific to apple. Similar situations are ubiquitous occurrences in the stock market.
When the price of a security is constantly climbing over a long term then one can safely assume that there is some sort of luck involved. Things are going swimmingly well for this reason. It is not to say that the underlying business is not improving or that the management is not able. Luck has tried the patience of many great businesses and managements.
Luck reduces your margin of safety. By not buying a company when things are going exceedingly well you will increase your margin of safety.
I always thought that paying $8.5 bn for Skype was stupid of Microsoft (MSFT).
Not much happened this month.
I finished an excellent book – “The power of habit” and am reading another – “More than you know”.
I started a position in Nam Tai Electronics (NTE). It is an electronics manufacturer and has significant assets in terms of real estate (see gurufocus). The company trades at meaningful discount to the book value and the management has a track record of being shareholder friendly. I hope I will be able to add more at these prices.
Following is the cash report for the month.